Disruptions to international fertiliser supplies caused by the closing of the strait of Hormuz will cause food scarcity and high prices, the World Trade Organisation’s deputy director general, Jean-Marie Paugam, told Agence France-Press.

A third of the world’s fertilisers normally transit the strait, which has been virtually closed by Iran since the start of the war.

Paugam said there would be an impact on both quantity and prices. “The effect compounds the following year: harvests shrink and prices rise,” he said.

The gulf has ample supplies of natural gas, a key ingredient in artificial fertilisers, but production has been severely impeded by the war, with several facilities forced to shut down.

Major food exporters like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on exports of urea, a nitrogen-based fertiliser. There is currently no fertiliser shortage, Paugum said, but as the conflict drags on “we will feel a direct impact on supplies to major producer countries just as planting season begins for the crops that will be harvested next year”.

Countries which import most of their food would be in a very bad position, according to Paugum, including parts of west and north Africa. The effect would be amplified if countries begin stockpiling, as occurred during the Covid pandemic.

If you’re just joining us, here is a recap of the day so far:

• The US has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, sources told Reuters, with the New York Times saying the plan was delivered by way of Pakistan. It is unclear if Israel is on board with the proposal, nor if Iran is likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Crude oil prices dropped more than 5% after news of the plan broke.

• Donald Trump claimed negotiations to end the Iran war are happening “right now” and that Tehran had agreed to “never” have a nuclear weapon, declaring that “we’ve won this war” to reporters in the Oval Office. He further claimed Tehran gave him a “gift” which was “oil and gas-related” which involved the strait of Hormuz, without giving further details.

• This comes a day after Iranian officials denied any contact with the US had taken place and called claims of such talks “fake news” designed to “manipulate” oil markets.

• News that Trump has approved the deployment of more than 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East further undermined the US president’s repeated claims of successful peace talks. The extra troops have not yet left the US but will be sent overseas in the coming days, sources told AP.

• A projectile has hit the premises of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, who were informed of the strike by Iran. There was no damage to the facility or staff and conditions at the plant remain normal, the IAEA said on X.

• Approximately 290 US troops have been wounded so far, CNN reports, with 13 soldiers killed in action. More than 1,500 Iranians have been killed in the conflict, Iran’s state broadcaster said on 21 March.

• Lebanon faces an “existential crisis” after Israel announced plans to seize and occupy large swathes of the country’s south to create a so-called “security zone”, officials say. Many Lebanese fear that IDF plans to create a “buffer” south of the Litani River – 20 miles from the current Israel-Lebanon border – will become a long-term occupation.

• At least six people in Lebanon have been killed by Israeli strikes, state media reported, as the Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for much of southern Beirut. More than 1,000 people have died in Lebanon since the start of the conflict, according to the health ministry.

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have fired missiles at Israel and US forces in bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, state media reported. Kuwait air defences confirmed they were responding to missile and drone attacks, with initial reports indicating only material damage.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they have fired missiles at Israel and military bases hosting US forces in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, according to Iranian state television.

An IRG statement claimed targets were struck by “precision-guided liquid- and solid-fuel missile system and attack drones”, Agence France-Presse reported.

As we reported earlier, Kuwait air defences confirmed they were responding to missile and drone attacks, with initial reports indicating only material damage at this stage.

The Philippines is seeking waivers from the US state department so it can obtain oil from US-sanctioned countries — possibly including Iran and Venezuela — to ensure its fuel supply, the country’s ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, told Reuters.

The South-East Asian nation, which relies heavily on imported fuel, declared a state of national energy emergency on Tuesday as the fallout from the Middle East war continues.

As of 20 March, the government said the country has about 45 days of fuel supply remaining and is seeking to procure another 1m barrels of oil to build its buffer.

Manilla has temporarily increased coal-fired power generation in response to the crisis. Washington has previously issued 30-day waivers for Russian crude oil and Iranian oil from tankers already at sea.

Asked if Washington had responded, Romualdez said the matter was a “work in progress”.

Read more background here.

Further to our earlier post, at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division will be sent to the Middle East in the coming days, three people with knowledge of the plans told Associated Press.

Earlier, Sky News and NBC News reported that Trump had approved the deployment.

The 82nd airborne is an elite infantry division that can typically be deployed on short notice and specialises in forcible entry parachute assaults.

It is the latest addition of American troops after US officials last week said thousands of Marines aboard several Navy ships will be heading to the region.

The Marine deployment to the region raises speculation the US may try to seize Kharg Island, which is vital to Iran’s oil network, AP reported.

The US bombed the island more than a week ago, hitting its defences but saying it had left oil infrastructure intact.

Iran has threatened to mine the gulf if the US appears to be on the verge of landing troops.

Brent crude oil, the global market benchmark, dropped close to six percent on Wednesday after Donald Trump sent a peace plan to Iran, Agence France-Presse reports.

At around 0030 GMT, a barrel of Brent crude was down 5.92% at $98.30.

Benchmark US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, was down 5.01% at $87.72.

As reported earlier, the US reportedly sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the US-Israel war on Iran, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

News of the US plan was reported earlier by the New York Times, which, citing two officials, said the plan was delivered by way of Pakistan.

Per the NYT’s report, it is unclear how widely the plan had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations.

Israeli strikes killed at least six people in a town and a Palestinian refugee camp in the southern Sidon area, Lebanese state media reported on Wednesday.

Citing the health ministry, the official National News Agency said four people were killed in an “Israeli enemy raid” on the town of Adloun, and another two in a strike on an apartment in the Mieh Mieh refugee camp.

A drone attack has hit a fuel tank and sparked a fire at Kuwait airport, Kuwait’s civil aviation authority said on Wednesday.

Emergency procedures were activated immediately, with firefighting teams responding to the blaze, it said, adding that initial reports indicated only material damage.

Approximately 290 US service members have been injured during operations targeting Iran, a spokesperson for US central command told CNN on Tuesday.

Of those 290 injured, 255 have returned to duty, the spokesperson said. Ten US troops remain seriously wounded.

Thirteen US troops had been killed in action, CNN reported.

More than 1,500 Iranians have been killed, Iran’s state broadcaster said on 21 March, as well as over 1000 people in Lebanon, according to its health ministry.

The general chief of staff of France’s armed forces, Fabien Mandon, has called the US an “unpredictable ally” that is impacting France’s interests and security, Reuters reports.

Speaking to a security and defence forum in Paris on Tuesday, Mandon said:

We ‌were surprised by an American ally, who remains an ally, but who is becoming increasingly unpredictable and doesn’t even bother ​to inform us when they decide to launch ​military operations.

It has an impact on our security and ​it has an impact on our interests.

France and the US are close Nato allies, but tensions have been mounting over Washington’s decision to launch its war on Iran.

Mandon said France intervened in Afghanistan at the US’s request and then the US withdrew without informing France.

They have now decided to intervene in the Middle East without informing us.

Cyprus has asked the UK to negotiate stronger security arrangements following Iranian drone attacks on the island’s UK military bases, the Telegraph reports.

President Nikos Christodoulides raised the issue during a lengthy call with the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, on Saturday, the report said.

The Akrotiri and Dhekelia bases, comprising 256 sq km (99 sq miles), remained UK sovereign territory when Cyprus became independent in 1960. The British government uses them as training areas and staging posts for operations in the region.

Fears Cyprus would become a de-facto target for Iran because of the bases were realised earlier this month when an unmanned attack drone – said to have been launched by the Iranian proxy Hezbollah from Lebanon – crashed into RAF Akrotiri’s runway on 2 March. Two other drones were intercepted heading in the direction of the base the next day.

The Telegraph said Christodoulides wants a renegotiation of security arrangements of the 1960 treaty, when the Iran war ends, though that would not include asking Britain to give up the bases.

We need to have an open and frank discussion with the British government with regard to the status of the British bases.

A UK Ministry of Defence spokesperson told the Telegraph the status of the bases was not up for negotiation and that the “long-standing friendship” between the UK and Cyprus remained strong “in the face of Iranian threats”.

The US has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the US-Israel war on Iran, a source familiar with the matter has told Reuters.

News of the US plan was reported earlier by the New York Times, which, citing two officials, said the plan was delivered by way of Pakistan.

Per the NYT’s report, it is unclear how widely the plan had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations.

Nor is it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran with the US, was on board with the proposal. (Israeli officials have previously said strikes would continue on Iran – and Lebanon – even as the US considers ceasefire possibilities).

According to Israel’s Channel 12 news, the 15 points were:

• Iran dismantling its nuclear capabilities;

• Iran committing to not pursuing further nuclear weapons;

• Iran not enriching any more nuclear material;

• All enriched material will be delivered to Saba on a schedule to be determined by the US, Israel and Iran;

• The Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities will be decommissioned;

• The Atomic Energy Agency will get access to all nuclear information with regard to Iran’s programme;

• Iran will abandon its proxy model;

• Iran will stop its actual funding and arming of proxies in the region;

• The strait of Hormuz will remain open, as a free maritime zone and unblocked in the future;

• Iran will limit the number and range of its missiles;

• Any further use of its missiles will be for Iranian self-defence only;

• All sanctions on Iran will be lifted;

• Iran will be assisted in developing a civil nuclear project in Bushehr;

• The snapback threat against Iran will be removed,

• The US and Israel will assist Iran in promoting and developing a civil nuclear project in Bushehr (electricity generation).

French president Emmanuel Macron has said he’s spoken on the phone to Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian and urged Tehran to “engage in good faith” in talks to end the US-Israeli war on Iran.

“I called on Iran to engage in good faith in negotiations,” Macron said in a post on X, adding this would “open a path towards de-escalation”.

He said that he had also urged Tehran to end the “unacceptable” attacks on Gulf countries, to “restore freedom of navigation” in the strait of Hormuz, and had emphasised the importance of “preserving energy and civilian infrastructure”.

The Israeli military issued a fresh warning to residents in Beirut’s densely populated southern suburbs to evacuate on Tuesday night.

In a social media post, IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the military is continuing its operations and attacks on what it describes as “Hezbollah infrastructure” in the region.

Residents in seven neighbourhoods including Haret Hreik, Laylaki, Haddad and Borj el-Branjeh, must “evacuate immediately” to avoid harm, he said.

Since my last post on this, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that it has been informed by Iran that a projectile struck the premises of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

The IAEA said in a post on X that according to Iran there was no damage to the facility or injuries to staff and that conditions at the plant remain normal.

The UN watchdog’s director general Rafael Mariano Grossi reiterated the call for maximum restraint to avoid nuclear safety risks during conflict.

We’re getting more reports now of Donald Trump approving the deployment of more than 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

Sky News and NBC News are reporting that Trump approved the deployment last night and the orders are being written today for the headquarters, staff, and some ground forces, but not the full brigade.

The full brigade consists of over 3,000 troops, but this deployment will be fewer than half that — under 1,500 soldiers, which clears up earlier reports that thousands of additional troops would be sent.

The extra troops have not yet left the US, but could be sent overseas in the coming days.

The 82nd airborne is an elite infantry division specializing in forcible entry parachute assaults.

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization has reported that a projectile hit the grounds of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, following what it described as continued hostile actions by US and Israeli forces, in a statement published by Iranian news outlets.

The incident, which took place on Tuesday night, caused “no financial or technical damage, and no casualties”, and “no part of the facility” was affected, it said.

The AEOI said the same nuclear power plant was hit on 17 March, with that incident also resulting in no casualties or damage.

It stated that attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities constitute a “clear violation of international regulations regarding the immunity of such centers from military action”, and warned of “dangerous consequences for regional safety, particularly for countries along the Persian Gulf”.

Speaking at the White House earlier, Trump was asked how hopeful he is that a peace deal with Iran will work. He responded:

This war has been won.

He claimed that if he wanted to take down something like “that very big powerful power plant” - referring to Iran’s South Pars gas field, which he has previously threatened to attack - “they can’t do a thing about it”.

Iran is “wiped out militarily”, he claimed, adding:

They are dead.

There was, however, very little in Trump’s remarks that gave any sense of how the war could actually end.

Trump says Iran has given the US a gift “worth a tremendous amount of money” related to oil and gas.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, the President didn’t specify what the gift was but said it was related to the strait of Hormuz.

He said Iranian negotiators “did something yesterday that was amazing, actually. They gave us a present.”

He continued: “It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money ….so that meant one thing to me. We’re dealing with the right people.”

Trump has claimed Iran badly wants to make a deal.

Speaking in the Oval Office, he said: “We’re actually talking to the right people and they want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea how badly they want to make a deal,” Trump said of the Iranians.

Donald Trump has claimed Iran “agreed they will never have a nuclear weapons”.

Speaking to reporters while swearing in Markwayne Mullin as new Homeland Security Secretary, he said Iran was “talking to us and they’re talking sense.”

He continued: “It all starts with they cannot have a nuclear weapon,” adding: “I don’t want to say in advance, but they’ve agreed they will never have a nuclear weapon. They’ve agreed to that.”

The Pentagon is expected to send thousands of troops from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the matter have told Reuters, adding to the massive military buildup even as the Trump administration apparently seeks talks with Iran.

The Wall Street Journal hears similar, and puts the number of additional troops at 3,000.

A written order to send the soldiers from the US army’s 82nd airborne unit is expected to be released in the coming hours, two US officials told the paper.

It’s unclear where in the region the troops would be sent to and when they would arrive there.

The US military referred to the White House, which did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

It follows reports on 13 March of 5,000 US marines and sailors, along with an amphibious assault ship, being sent to the region.

Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that he doesn’t want to US boots on the ground in Iran – but also hasn’t ruled it out.

UK forces shot down 14 “kamikaze” drones overnight, the largest number downed in a single night since the start of the Middle East crisis that was sparked by US-Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February.

Britain’s defence secretary John Healey told ministers at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting that a counter-drone team had brought them down during an attack on a joint base in Iraq.

The one-way attack drones were gunned down from the Erbil base, which houses UK and US troops, the PA news agency understands.

Specialist troops from the RAF Regiment, which defends British assets, used the UK’s Rapid Sentry air defence system to defeat the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Similarly, Michel Helou, secretary-general of the National Bloc, a centre-right, secular Lebanese political party, has told NBC News that Lebanon is facing an “existential crisis” amid fears of a long-term occupation by Israeli forces of the country’s south.

The amount of destruction in South Lebanon and in Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley is absolutely disastrous. And that has also pushed a million Lebanese on the roads.

With Israel’s defence minister announcing that the IDF would take control of a so-called “security zone” in southern Lebanon, as well as over the remaining bridges over the Litani River it hadn’t yet destroyed (see my last post), Helou said Lebanon faced a more “desperate situation” than it had seen in decades since the civil war.

He also accused Israel of “psychological terrorism” over Katz’s comparisons of Israel’s “model” for operations in southern Lebanon to those executed in parts of Gaza that were reduced to rubble, while – as I reported yesterday – Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has openly and explicitly called for Israel to annex southern Lebanon.

On the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese people who have had to flee the south, Helou added:

For the first time, there is no more life. There’s no more human presence. So, it’s much more dangerous than occupation. It’s really the destruction of an entire area.

Hezbollah will fight to prevent Israeli troops from occupying southern Lebanon, one of the group’s top lawmakers Hassan Fadlallah has told Reuters, saying such an occupation would pose an “existential threat” to Lebanon as a state.

Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, earlier said he had instructed the IDF to establish a so-called “security zone” south of the Litani River, about 20 miles from the current Israel-Lebanon border – meaning Israeli occupation of a large area of southern Lebanon.

Katz said the hundreds of thousands of south Lebanon residents who were displaced by the war this month “will not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed for the residents of the north” of Israel.

Israeli forces attacked the Qasmiyeh Bridge, a key crossing linking Lebanon’s south to the rest of the country, over the weekend, in what Lebanese president Joseph Aoun described as a “prelude to ground invasion”.

Indeed, on Tuesday, Katz said the military would “control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani”. Israel has already destroyed five key bridges over the river since 13 March, leading many Lebanese people to fear that Israel is attempting to separate southern Lebanon from the rest of the country ahead of a large-scale invasion.

This would mean many people displaced from their homes, following evacuation orders across large areas of southern Lebanon, would have nowhere to return to.

Israel’s forced displacement of civilians in Lebanon is a possible war crime, according to the United Nations and Human Rights Watch.

Iran’s military will continue its response to the war launched by the US and Israel until the regime has achieved “complete victory”, the commander of the country’s armed forces said earlier, in a statement issued via state media.

Major general Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi didn’t elaborate on what the regime would consider “complete victory”. However, he mocked the United States as a “hollow” nation that has been “brought down in front of the world”, with Donald Trump left “trying to escape from the war” it started.

He continued:

The American president, Trump, after realizing the situation and becoming stuck in the war, has lost hope in his goals and is now seeking help from other countries to get out, which is a historic moment and a great honor for the Iranian people.

At this sensitive time, Iran’s armed forces remain loyal to their promise, fully follow the supreme leader and commander-in-chief Mojtaba Khamenei and will continue this proud path with the support of the people until complete victory.

An Iranian missile was intercepted over Lebanese airspace for the first time on Tuesday, according to three senior Lebanese security sources, with two of them saying a foreign naval vessel was responsible for the interception.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that shrapnel from an interception had landed over a series of towns north of Beirut and led to some light injuries.

In its latest figures, Lebanon’s health ministry has said that Israel’s renewed offensive on the country has killed at least 1,072 people and wounded 2,966 others since 2 March.

Iran has reportedly begun charging some commercial vessels transit fees to pass through the strait of Hormuz, highlighting its growing influence over the key global shipping route.

Sources say payments of up to $2m per voyage are being requested on an ad hoc basis, effectively creating an informal toll, Bloomberg reported.

Some ships are understood to have paid, though the process and currency remain unclear and the system does not appear to be consistent.

However, Iran’s embassy in India denied the claims. In a post on X, it said:

In response to certain claims regarding the alleged receipt of a sum of 2 million dollars by the Islamic Republic of Iran from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, it is emphasized that such claims are unfounded.

The statements made in this regard merely reflect the personal views of individuals and do not, in any way, represent the official position of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It comes a week after reports that Iran was pursuing a plan in which countries “will be obliged to pay duties and taxes to Iran if they use the strait of Hormuz as a safe route”.

The strait carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, along with large volumes of other goods, with any shift in control closely monitored by global markets.

Pakistan is ready to host talks between the US and Iran to settle the conflict in the Middle East, prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a post on X on Tuesday.

He wrote:

Pakistan welcomes and fully supports ongoing efforts to pursue dialogue to end the WAR in Middle East, in the interest of peace and stability in region and beyond.

Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict.

Earlier today, it was reported that Pakistan’s military leadership has been attempting to broker negotiations between the US and Iran, after the White House confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, had a call with Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss the conflict.

Diplomatic sources said the US and Iran could meet for negotiations in Islamabad as early as this week to discuss an end to the war, which began almost a month ago.

It has just gone past 16:35pm in Tehran, and 15:05pm in Tel Aviv and Beirut. Here is a quick recap of events:

• Pakistani sources told the Guardian that the US vice-president, JD Vance, was being put forward as a probable chief negotiator for the US side if Iran peace talks in Pakistan went ahead.

• US president, Donald Trump, on Monday claimed there had been “very good and productive” talks with Tehran that aimed to bring the US-Israeli war to an end. But Iran denied any talks were under way.

• However, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been talking about the war in recent days with his counterparts in Azerbaijan, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Turkey and Turkmenistan, his office said.

• Iranian barrages targeted Israel, Gulf Arab states and northern Iraq on Tuesday, while Israeli and US warplanes continued to carry out airstrikes across Tehran.

• Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said that the military will take control of south Lebanon all the way to the Litani River, which is about 30km (19 miles) from the Lebanon-Israel border.

• Katz said that “hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon” will “not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed for residents of the north”, meaning many of these people may never have any homes to go back to.

• Israel’s displacement of civilians in Lebanon, which has seen more than a million people flee their homes, is a possible war crime, according to Human Rights Watch.

• The Philippines declared a state of national emergency over the US-Israeli war on Iran, citing the “imminent danger” posed to the country’s energy supply.

• Iran named a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander as the new secretary of the country’s supreme national security council, replacing Ali Larijani, who was killed in an overnight Israeli airstrike earlier this month.

• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the US-Israeli war on Iran was a “breach of international law” and spoke of a “deep rift” with the US, its traditional ally.

• Qatar said the regional security system in the Gulf has been broken during the war and said it is working closely with the Trump administration to de-escalate tensions, although it confirmed there had been no direct Qatari mediation between the US and Iran.

The Philippines has declared a state of national emergency over the US-Israeli war on Iran, citing the “imminent danger” posed to the country’s energy supply.

The Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said a committee has been formed to ensure the orderly movement, supply, distribution and availability of fuel, food, medicines, agricultural products and other essential goods.

“The declaration of a state of national energy emergency will enable the government ... to implement responsive and coordinated measures under existing laws to address the risks posed by disruptions in the global energy supply and the domestic economy,” he said.

Unlike the US or Europe, south-east Asia is hugely reliant on oil that passes through the strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping route which Iran is effectively blocking as leverage against the US (although some ships from “friendly” countries have been allowed through with Tehran’s permission).

Nearly 80% of the region’s crude oil imports come from the Persian Gulf, meaning the war is having a huge impact on economies and resources in south-east Asian countries.

The Philippines, which is among the countries that relies heavily on Middle ​Eastern oil for fuel needs, is set to import Russian oil this month for the ​first time in five years.

Iran has named a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander as the new secretary of the country’s supreme national security council, replacing Ali Larijani, who was killed in an overnight Israeli airstrike earlier this month.

Iranian state television identified the new secretary as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who had been serving as the secretary of Iran’s expediency council, a powerful arbitration body. Zolghadr has reportedly held other senior positions, including in the judiciary and interior ministry.

Larijani, who had played a key diplomatic role before the war alongside Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was the most senior Iranian figure to be assassinated in the war since the supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US-Israeli airstrikes on its first day.

Pakistan’s military leadership has been attempting to broker negotiations between the US and Iran, after the White House confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, had a call with Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss the conflict.

Diplomatic sources said the US and Iran could meet for negotiations in Islamabad as early as this week to discuss an end to the war, which began almost a month ago.

It was emphasised that Islamabad had yet to be officially confirmed as the venue for any peace talks, which neither side has formally agreed to so far. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is believed to be preparing to travel to Islamabad but there was no confirmation that anyone from the Iranian side would be in attendance.

Pakistani sources said that the US vice-president, JD Vance, was being put forward as a probable chief negotiator from the US side if talks went ahead, rather than Witkoff or Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who led the nuclear negotiations with Iran before the war. You can read more from my colleagues Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shah Meer Baloch here:

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majid al-Ansari has been speaking to the media about the US-Israeli war on Iran. Here are some of the key takeaways from what he said:

• The regional security system in the Gulf has been broken during the war, Al Jazeera quoted al-Ansari as saying.

• The “brotherly relationship” between residents of Qatar and Iran should take precedence “over any other political consideration”, he said.

• There is no direct Qatari mediation between the US and Iran.

• The US took the decision to go to war based on their assessment.

• Qatar is working closely with the Trump administration to de-escalate the war and stop Iranian attacks on Qatar.

• There have been no incoming missiles or drones from Iran aimed at Qatar since last Thursday. But “we are still in the eye of the storm,” the BBC quoted al-Ansari as saying.

• “Our posture is defensive. We have had more than 200 drone attacks. We reserve the right to respond. No decision has yet been taken on whether to retaliate. Over 90% of attacks have been intercepted.”

• Qatar offering to close the US al-Udeid air base – the largest US military base in the Middle East – has not been discussed at all.

In unusually frank comments, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the US-Israeli war on Iran was a “breach of international law”.

“The rift is too deep and the trust in American power politics has been lost, not only among our allies but... worldwide,” he said at an event to mark the 75th anniversary of the German foreign ministry.

Steinmeier, a former foreign minister who now holds a largely ceremonial role, added: “Our foreign policy does not become any more convincing simply because we do not call a breach of international law a breach of international law.”

“There is little doubt that, in any case, the justification of an imminent attack on the US does not hold water,” he said.

At the start of the war, the US administration formally invoked article 51 of the UN charter – the self-defence provision – arguing that Iran’s missile arsenal and nuclear ambitions posed a direct threat to American forces in the region.

Legal experts, however, widely agree that the war on Iran is illegal as there didn’t seem to be any evidence of an imminent threat by Iran when it was launched on 28 February.

Several experts cited Donald Trump’s claim to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear programme last year as evidence that directly countered the suggestion of an imminent threat.

German chancellor Friedrich Merz stuck close to Washington in the early days of the war, but has since shifted his stance, pointing to its destabilising impact on energy costs and “potential to trigger large-scale migration”.

But as the head of the governments, perhaps trying to toe a more diplomatic line, Merz’s comments have been a lot more reserved than Steinmeier’s were today. Merz has repeatedly said Germany shares “the objective that Iran should no longer pose a threat in future”, while also making clear his country would not enter the war.

Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, has been quoted by the AFP news agency as saying that the military will take control of south Lebanon all the way to the Litani river, which is about 30km (19 miles) from the Lebanon-Israel border.

“All five bridges over the Litani that were used by Hezbollah for the passage of terrorists and weapons have been blown up, and the IDF (Israeli military) will control the rest of the bridges and the security zone up to the Litani,” Katz said during a visit to a military command centre in Israel. The IDF often refers to “terrorists” even though they regularly kill civilians and destroy civilian infrastructure in their attacks.

Katz said hundreds of thousands of south Lebanon residents who were displaced by the war this month “will not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed for the residents of the north” of Israel.

Israeli forces attacked the Qasmiyeh Bridge, a key crossing linking Lebanon’s south to the rest of the country, over the weekend, in what Lebanese President Joseph Aoun described as a “prelude to ground invasion”.

Many Lebanese people fear Israel is attempting to separate southern Lebanon from the rest of the country ahead of a large-scale invasion.

This would mean many people displaced from their homes, following evacuation orders across large areas of southern Lebanon, would have nowhere to return to.

Israel’s displacement of civilians in Lebanon is a possible war crime, according to Human Rights Watch.

Over one million people have been displaced in Lebanon since Israel renewed its war on the country on 2 March, causing a multitude of humanitarian issues given the speed and the scale of the displacement. The Lebanese health ministry said at least 1,039 people, including 79 women and 118 children, have been killed in Israeli attacks since the latest war began.

The International Rescue Committee said:

Thousands remain without adequate shelter – sleeping in the open, on the streets, in tents, or in their cars – while others are packed into overcrowded, under-equipped collective shelters with limited access to clean water, sanitation, and privacy. Local services are struggling to keep pace with rising demand.

Airstrikes targeting a site belonging to Iraq’s Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Forces in the country’s Anbar province killed at least 15 fighters, including the PMF’s Anbar operations commander, and injured 30 others, sources told the Reuters news agency.

The PMF confirmed the death of its Anbar commander, Saad al-Baiji, and 14 others. It accused the US of being behind the attack, saying an American airstrike targeted a command headquarters while personnel were on duty.

The PMF is an umbrella group of mostly Shi’ite paramilitary factions that was formally integrated into Iraq’s state security forces and includes several groups aligned with Iran. Iran-backed armed groups have launched attacks on US bases in Iraq since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February. We have not been able to independently verify Reuter’s report yet.

If you’re just joining us, here’s a snapshot of the latest key developments in week four of the US-Israel war on Iran.

• At least six people have been injured in an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Israeli media is reporting.

• Iran earlier launched a fresh wave of missiles against Israel just hours after Donald Trump hailed “very good” talks to end the war and gave a five-day extension to his deadline on Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz shipping lane or see the US “obliterate” its power plants. Tehran denied any talks took place, with the parliamentary speaker calling it “fake news … used to manipulate the financial and oil markets”.

• An Israeli strike south of Beirut killed two people on Tuesday, Lebanon’s health ministry said, while strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs continued throughout the night.

• The US will continue striking Iran and the five-day pause applies only to attacks on the country’s energy sites during the US-Iran talks, Semafor reported, citing a US official.

• European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said it was time for negotiations with Iran to end the war, given the global energy situation was now “critical”.

• A Pakistani official and a second source told Reuters that direct talks on ending the war could be held in Islamabad this week. The official said US vice-president JD Vance as well as Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were expected to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad this week, after a call between Trump and Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir.

• Benjamin Netanyahu said he had spoken with Trump and that Israel would continue its strikes against Iran and Lebanon. Trump saw a chance of a deal with Iran to “preserve our vital interests”, the Israeli PM said.

• Israel said it had launched “wide-scale” strikes on Iran on Monday, while Tehran continued to fire missiles at the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Israeli military also claimed to have hit struck the main security headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as part of a wave of strikes in Tehran.

• British destroyer HMS Dragon arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, three weeks after an Iranian-made drone hit the British base of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, the UK’s defence secretary said. The British government has faced criticism for the slowness to deploy a warship to the region, after moves by Greece and France to send extra naval support to Cyprus after the attack.

• Slovenia became the first EU member state to introduce fuel rationing in a bid to tackle disruptions caused by the Middle East war.

Haaretz has updated to six the number of people lightly hurt in the missile attack in Tel Aviv.

The Times of Israel and Ynet are also saying six people were hurt, while the Jerusalem Post is saying at least six.

Four people have been wounded in an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv, Israel’s Haaretz is reporting.

The newspaper said several buildings in city were damaged, and that emergency services said the four people were lightly injured at one of the impact sites on Tuesday.

One building and its adjacent road were heavily damaged in central Tel Aviv, where cars caught fire, the report said.

Intercepted missile fragments also fell in Rosh HaAyin, causing minor damage. No casualties were reported there.

Haaretz also said rescue services were heading to the scene.

Earlier on Tuesday Iran fired three waves of missiles at Israel, with reports of an impact in the country’s north, the Israeli Home Front Command said.

An Israeli strike south of Beirut killed two people on Tuesday, Lebanon’s health ministry said, while strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs continued throughout the night.

“The Israeli enemy raid on the town of Bshamoun in the Aley district resulted, in a preliminary toll, in the martyrdom of two citizens and the injury of five others,” the ministry said in a statement cited by Agence France-Presse.

Bshamoun is in the mountainous, Druze-majority Aley district south-east of Beirut and is outside of Hezbollah’s traditional strongholds, the news agency says.

Vietnam’s national air carrier will suspend nearly two dozen domestic flights a week starting next month because of limited fuel supplies caused by the Middle East war, the nation’s aviation authority has said.

The price of jet fuel has jumped since the war began more than three weeks ago, triggering soaring oil prices and fuel shortage fears.

“Vietnam Airlines plans to temporarily suspend operations on several routes from April 1,” totalling 23 flights a week, the country’s civil aviation authority said in a statement late Monday, cited by AFP.

“The limited supply of aviation fuel (Jet A-1) due to the conflict in the Middle East has put domestic airlines at risk of fuel shortages,” prompting the flight cuts, the authority said.

Major domestic routes and international flights would be maintained, it said.

Airlines in Vietnam were working on adding fuel surcharges on international routes that might be applied in April, it added.

Vietnam has recently asked for fuel support from several countries, including Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria and Japan, and on Monday signed a deal with Russia on oil and gas production in both countries.

The US will continue striking Iran and the pause applies only to attacks on the country’s energy sites during what Donald Trump has called “productive” talks with Iranian leaders, Semafor is reporting, citing a US official.

“The stop on attacks for five days is only on their energy sites,” the news site quoted the unnamed official as saying.

“It is not on the military sites and the navy, and the ballistic missiles, and the defence industrial base. The initial initiatives of [Operation] Epic Fury will continue.”

The Semafor report also said Israel was not party to Washington’s talks with Tehran.

The report could not immediately be independently verified.

The Reuters news agency said the White House, US state department and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular hours.

Trump on Monday said he had extended by five days his deadline to destroy Iran’s power plants if it did not fully open the vital strait of Hormuz.

Nearly 150,000 New Zealand families will soon receive a weekly cash payment to help them afford petrol, the government has announced, in what is believed to be the world’s first fuel relief package that directly pays citizens since the Iran war began.

On Tuesday, prime minister Christopher Luxon and finance minister Nicola Willis announced roughly 143,000 families with children would get an extra NZ$50 ($29/£22) a week through a boost to the in-work tax credit – a payment to families with dependent children where at least one parent is in paid employment and neither parent receives benefits.

Another 14,000 families on slightly higher incomes will also be eligible for payments, but will receive less than $50 per week.

The increase will be temporary, lasting for one year from 1 April, or until the price of 91 octane petrol drops below NZ$3 ($1.75/£1.30) a litre for four consecutive weeks.

Petrol prices have increased roughly 40-50 cents a litre in New Zealand, pushing unleaded fuel to more than NZ$3 a litre on average since the Middle East conflict began.

Meanwhile, some petrol stations have reported running out of petrol as people rush to stock up. As of Tuesday, the country had 46 days’ worth of combined petrol, diesel and jet fuel stocks.

See the full report here:

Recapping financial markets’ response after Donald Trump postponed the bombing of Iranian power plants: oil prices bounced back and Asian stocks rallied as immediate fears of a deeper energy shock were allayed.

Traders were quick to react to the reversal on Monday, sending crude futures tumbling and shares surging, while the US dollar and government bond yields fell, Reuters reports.

Most of the movement carried over to the Asian trading session on Tuesday, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising 1.3%, while shares in Australia were up 0.7%.

Japan’s Nikkei advanced more than 2%, reversing most of Monday’s 3.5% decline.

Oil prices, meanwhile, edged higher on Tuesday after sliding 10% in the previous session. Brent crude futures were up 1% at $100.94 a barrel, while US crude rose 1.9% to $89.84.

Still, movement was highly volatile. “Markets are not out of the woods,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Price action could remain choppy into Friday’s revised deadline ... The key question is whether participants see this as a genuine extension that brings a deal closer, or simply a delay that prolongs uncertainty.

Welcome to our ongoing coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran and its wider repercussions in the Middle East and globally.

Donald Trump has claimed the US and Iran have held talks in which the two sides had “major points of agreement”, and speculated that a deal could soon be done to end the war, a claim contradicted by Tehran.

Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) called Trump’s words “psychological operations” that had no impact on Tehran’s fight, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said it was “fake news … used to manipulate the financial and oil markets”.

Despite doubts about any direct negotiations, a European official said Egypt, Pakistan and Gulf states were relaying messages. On Tuesday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said it was time for negotiations with Iran, given the global energy situation was now “critical”.

Speaking in Australia at the conclusion of a new free-trade agreement between the EU and Australia, she said: “The situation is critical for the energy supply allies worldwide. We all feel the knock-on effects on gas and oil prices, our businesses and our societies, but it is of utmost importance that we come to a solution that is negotiated, and this puts an end to the hostilities that we see in the Middle East.”

A Pakistani official and a second source told Reuters that direct talks on ending the war could be held in Islamabad this week. The Pakistani official said US vice-president JD Vance as well as Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were expected to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad this week, after a call between Trump and Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir.

In other key developments:

• Trump said the threatened US strikes on Iranian power plants had been postponed after “very good and productive” discussions with Iran about a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities” in the Middle East. After hitting a four-year high, the price of oil fell dramatically following Trump’s comments, while stocks in Asia rallied.

• Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, said he had spoken with Trump, who saw a chance of an agreement with Iran, but added that Israel would continue its strikes against Iran and Lebanon. Trump believed there was a possibility of “leveraging the mighty achievements obtained by the Israeli and the US military, in order to realise the goals of the war in a deal – a deal that will preserve our vital interests”, the Israeli prime minister claimed in a video statement released by his office.

• Israel said it had launched “wide-scale” strikes on Iran on Monday morning, while Tehran continued to fire missiles at the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Israeli military also claimed to have hit struck the main security headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as part of a “wave of strikes that was completed a short while ago in the heart of Tehran”.

• An Israeli strike also hit Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday, Agence France-Presse quoted state media as saying, hours after the Israeli army issued an order for residents of the area to evacuate. An AFPTV live broadcast showed a cloud of smoke over the densely populated southern suburbs, which are considered a Hezbollah stronghold and have not been hit since Friday night.

• British destroyer HMS Dragon arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, three weeks after an Iranian-made drone hit the British base of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, the UK’s defence secretary said. The British government has faced criticism for the slowness to deploy a warship to the region, after moves by Greece and France to send extra naval support to Cyprus after the attack.

• Slovenia became the first EU member state to introduce fuel rationing in a bid to tackle disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation on their allies in the Gulf.

• Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said it had intercepted and destroyed at least five drones over the kingdom’s eastern region.

• The US embassy in Muscat lifted its shelter in place guidance for the city, but the guidance remains in place for the rest of Oman, the embassy said on X. It earlier issued a security alert for the whole country because of “ongoing activity”, without elaborating.