In his latest post on Truth Social, Donald Trump claimed that the US is in “serious discussions” with a “new and more reasonable regime” to end its war on Iran, but threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s strategically crucial Kharg Island if a deal is not reached shortly.

Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.”

This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.”

As my colleague Lorenzo Tondo notes in this story, last week the US, via Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator, presented Iran with a 15-point ceasefire proposal, including reopening the strait of Hormuz and curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme, but Tehran has rejected the proposals and offered alternatives.

Crucially, Iran wants Israel to stop attacking Iranian allies in the region, something Israel is unlikely to agree to. Tehran also reportedly wants reparations for war damage and the removal of American bases from the Middle East.

Last week after Trump said the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” about ending the war, Iranian officials quickly denied any such talks had occurred. Iran has said the US is secretly plotting a ground attack while displaying a message of diplomacy. The US is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz.

Spain, a Nato member, has closed its airspace to US planes involved in attacks on Iran, the country’s defence minister, Margarita Robles, told reporters in Madrid this morning.

“We don’t authorise either the use of military bases or the use of airspace for actions related to the war in Iran,” she said.

Spanish newspaper El Pais, which first reported the news on Monday, said the closure of the airspace forces military planes to bypass Spain en route to their targets in the Middle East, but it does not include emergency situations, in which case the aircraft will be permitted to transit or land.

“We have denied the United States the use of the Rota and Morón bases for this illegal war. All flight plans involving operations in Iran have been rejected. All of them, including those for refuelling aircraft,” Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, a vocal critic of the US-Israeli war on Iran, was quoted as having said last Wednesday in Congress.

Military sources told El Pais that Spain is also denying airspace access to US aircraft stationed in third countries, including France and the UK.

The US president, Donald Trump, has threatened to cut trade with Madrid for denying the American use of Spain’s bases in the war, which many legal experts agree was launched by the US and Israel in violation of international law.

An industrial building and a a fuel tanker at the Bazan oil refinery in Israel’s northern city of Haifa were struck by debris from an intercepted missile, the Times of Israel has cited the country’s fire and rescue service as having said.

There were no immediate reports of any casualties or damage to production facilities.

The Wall Street journal is among those reporting that the oil refinery was hit in by an Iranian missile, though this has not been something we have been able to independently verify.

Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry, has reaffirmed that Iran has not had any direct negotiations with the US, in comments carried by the Tasnim news agency.

“What has been discussed are messages we received through intermediaries stating that the US wants to negotiate,” he was quoted as having said.

“Iran has been clear about its position from the beginning, and we know very well what the framework is that we are considering. The material conveyed to us has been excessive and unreasonable requests.”

Pakistan, seen as a potential mediator between Washington and Tehran, hosted a four-way meeting with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt on Sunday, but nothing significant appeared to emerge from the talks and the war is showing no signs of de-escalation.

As my colleague Lorenzo Tondo notes in this story, last week the US presented Iran with a 15-point ceasefire proposal, including reopening the strait of Hormuz and curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme, but Tehran has rejected the plan and offered alternatives. Crucially, Iran wants Israel to stop attacking Iranian allies in the region, something Israel is unlikely to agree to.

Last week after Donald Trump said the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” about ending the war, Iranian officials quickly denied any such talks had occurred.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have confirmed the death of Alireza Tangsiri, the IRGC naval commander who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last Thursday, according to a statement by the guards being carried in Iranian media.

According to the US Treasury, which sanctioned him in 2019 and in 2023, Tangsiri oversaw the IRGC Navy’s testing of cruise missiles and sat on the board of a company that developed armed drones.

Tangsiri had reportedly been leading Iran’s successful effort to effectively close the strait of Hormuz – through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply normally passes – to almost all shipping traffic.

Donald Trump has also claimed that Iran had agreed to allow 20 ships carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning and continuing over the next few days as a “present”.

“They gave us 10 [ships through the strait],” he said. “Now they’re giving 20…”

Trump added that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, had authorised the additional tankers.

“He’s the one who authorised the ships to me,” Trump told the Financial Times. “Remember I said they’re giving me a present? And everyone said: ‘What’s the present? Bullshit.’ When they heard about that they kept their mouth shut and the negotiations are going very well.”

Yesterday Ghalibaf said that Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners for ever”.

He also accused the US of secretly preparing a ground assault while publicly seeking talks.

In case you’re just tuning in to today’s live coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran, here’s a recap of the latest developments. It’s 9.30am in Tehran, 9am in Tel Aviv and Beirut and 2am in Washington DC.

• Donald Trump has said his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and that US forces could seize the regime’s export hub on Kharg Island, the Financial Times is reporting. But as about 2,500 US Marines reportedly arrived in the Middle East, Trump also told the paper that “my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’” He also said: “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.”

• Trump said separately that the US and Iran had been meeting “directly and indirectly” and that Iran’s new leaders had been “very reasonable”. His remarks came after Pakistan – which is acting as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington – said it was preparing to host “meaningful talks” in the coming days aimed at ending the month-long war.

• Oil prices rallied and stocks tumbled again on Monday as the Middle East crisis escalated with the entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the war and concerns the US will send in ground troops. The price of brent crude had now gone over $116 a barrel, while stock markets slumped in Asia as investors dig in for a protracted conflict.

• Indonesia condemned the death of an Indonesian peacekeeper with the UN mission in Lebanon (Unifil) on Monday, after a projectile exploded at one of its positions near a southern Lebanese village on Sunday. Unifil said earlier that another peacekeeper was critically injured.

• The Israeli air force intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, the IDF posted online.

• The Israeli military said early on Monday it was attacking the Iranian regime’s infrastructure “throughout Tehran”. It said later it was responding to missiles fired from Iran.

• Benjamin Netanyahu earlier announced an expansion of Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon as his forces target Hezbollah and expand the “existing security buffer zone”. “We are determined to fundamentally change the situation in the north,” ⁠the Israeli PM said.

• Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iranian forces were “waiting” for US ground troops to arrive so they could “rain fire upon them”. It came after reports that the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of possible “ground operations” in Iran.

• Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds (454kg) of uranium from Iran, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, citing unnamed US officials.

• Power has reportedly been restored across parts of Iran after Israeli strikes hit “electricity infrastructure”, Iran’s energy minister said.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran’s heavy-water production plant at Khondab – which Israel attacked on 27 March – had “sustained severe damage and is no longer operational”. It added that the Khondab heavy water research reactor “contains no declared nuclear material”.

• A fire at an industrial site in southern Israel was brought under control, hours after being declared a “hazardous materials incident” in the area.

• I‌ranian supreme ‌leader Mojtaba ​Khamenei thanked ​the ‌Iraqi ​people and religious leadership for ​their ⁠support ⁠of Iran “in ‌the face of aggression”, Iranian state media reported.

• On Palm Sunday, the Pope said God rejected the prayers of leaders who started wars and ​had “hands full of blood”, in an apparent rebuke to Trump’s administration.

Donald Trump has said the US and Iran have been meeting “directly and indirectly” and that Iran’s new leaders have been “very reasonable”.

More US troops have arrived in the Middle East, meanwhile, and Tehran warned it would not accept humiliation.

Trump’s remarks on Sunday came after Pakistan – which is acting as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington – said it was preparing to host “meaningful talks” in the coming days aimed at ending the month-long Iran war.

Reuters reports the US president as telling reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday:

I think we’ll make a deal with them, I’m pretty sure, but it’s possible we won’t.

Trump said he thought the US had already accomplished regime change in Iran after strikes killed the country’s supreme leader and other top officials, but said twice that their replacements seemed “reasonable”.

An initial Israeli strike on 28 February killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was replaced by his son Mojtaba.

Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar said talks between regional foreign ministers on Sunday covered ways to bring an early end to the war, and potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.

It was not clear whether the US and Iran had agreed to attend.

Islamabad is attempting high-wire diplomacy between US and Iran – but Israel could spoil any chance of success, writes Saeed Shah in Islamabad. His analysis is here:

Donald Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds (454kg) of uranium from Iran, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, citing unnamed US officials.

The mission would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer, the report says.

It quotes the officials as saying the US president hadn’t made a decision on whether to go ahead, and that he was considering the danger to US troops.

But the president remains generally open to the idea, according to the officials, because it could help accomplish his central goal of preventing Iran from ever making a nuclear weapon.

The report could not be independently verified.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said any Pentagon preparations “does not mean the president has made a decision”, the WSJ report said. The Pentagon did not comment and a spokesperson for US Central Command declined to comment.

Trump told reporters on Sunday night that Iran must do what the US demands or “they’re not going to have a country”, the report said. Referring to Iran’s uranium, he said: “They’re going to give us the nuclear dust.”

Oil prices rallied and stocks tumbled again on Monday as the Middle East crisis escalated with the entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the war and concerns the US will send in ground troops.

The surge in oil prices and the prospect of an extended conflict put more pressure on equities amid fears about a surge in inflation that could hit the world economy.

Tokyo sank more than 4% and Seoul more than 3%, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Jakarta and Manila were also sharply down, reports Agence France-Presse.

The losses followed a bad day on Wall Street, where all three main indexes tumbled after the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites.

“The market is now reacting to higher crude pricing and towards the fallout in the economic consequences,” wrote Pepperstone’s Chris Weston.

The Israeli military has just said it is currently attacking the Iranian regime’s infrastructure “throughout Tehran”.

The brief post on X gave no further details.

Indonesia denounced the death of an Indonesian peacekeeper with the UN mission in Lebanon (Unifil) on Monday, after a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the southern Lebanese village of Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday.

Indonesia’s foreign ministry said harm towards UN peacekeepers was unacceptable, and reiterated its condemnation of Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, calling on all parties to respect Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Hello and welcome to our continuing live coverage of the Iran war and its impact on the region, the world and the global economy.

Donald Trump has said his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and that US forces could seize the regime’s export hub on Kharg Island, the Financial Times is reporting, as the US sends thousands of troops to the Middle East.

The US president compares the potential move to Venezuela, where the US intends to control the oil industry “indefinitely” following its ousting of president Nicolás Maduro in January.

Trump said in the interview with the FT on Sunday:

To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”

Such a move would involve seizing Kharg Island, through which most of Iran’s oil is exported, the FT report continues. But an assault on the export hub would be risky, raising the chances of more US casualties and extending the cost and duration of the war.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump said.

The newspaper also quoted Trump as stressing that, despite his threats to seize Iranian oil production, indirect US-Iran talks via Pakistani “emissaries” were progressing well.

Here are more key developments:

• The UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon said a peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the southern Lebanese village of Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday. Another peacekeeper was critically injured, it said early on Monday.

• The Israeli air force intercepted two unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Yemen, the IDF has posted online.

• Benjamin Netanyahu announced an expansion of Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon as his forces target Hezbollah. “I have just ‌instructed to further expand the existing security buffer zone. We are determined to fundamentally change the situation in the north,” ⁠the Israeli PM said in a ⁠video statement from the northern command. Israeli forces are currently occupying the area south of the Litani River, and its destruction of key bridges connecting to the rest of Lebanon and forced displacement of residents have stoked fears of a protracted occupation.

• Pakistan will soon host talks between the US and Iran, its foreign minister said, as top diplomats from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt met in Islamabad to discuss ways to de-escalate the war. Neither Washington nor Tehran have yet commented.

• Earlier, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iranian forces were “waiting” for US ground troops to arrive so they could “rain fire upon them”. It came after reports that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of possible “ground operations” in Iran, and as thousands of US soldiers and marines arrive in the region.

• Power has reportedly been restored across parts of Iran after Israeli strikes hit “electricity infrastructure”, Iran’s energy minister said.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran’s heavy-water production plant at Khondab – which Israel attacked on 27 March – had “sustained severe damage and is no longer operational”. In a post on X, the agency added that the Khondab heavy water research reactor “contains no declared nuclear material”. The Israeli military had described the site as a “key plutonium production site for nuclear weapons” when it bombed the facility on Friday.

• A fire at an industrial site in southern Israel has been been brought under control, hours after being declared a “hazardous materials incident” in the area. The IDF said the fire at the Neot Hovav industrial complex may have been caused by “a weapon fragment or interceptor fragment”.

• I‌ranian supreme ‌leader Mojtaba ​Khamenei thanked ​the ‌Iraqi ​people and religious leadership for ​their ⁠support ⁠of Iran “in ‌the face of aggression”, Iranian state media reported, without saying how this message was conveyed. More than three weeks on from his appointment as supreme leader, Khamenei has still not been seen or heard from in public since he was injured in the US-Israeli airstrike that killed his father, the late ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his wife and son on the first day of the war.

• On Palm Sunday, the Pope said God rejected the prayers of leaders who started wars and ​had “hands full of blood”, in an apparent rebuke to Trump’s administration.