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The cost of fish and chips is set to surge after the Easter long weekend as rising oil and fertiliser prices make all aspects of food supply more expensive.

Local shops have warned they cannot afford to absorb rising charges from fishers, trucks, potato farmers and planes.

Fish prices are up by nearly $1 a kilogram, there are $5 fuel levies on chip shipments and fryer oil is up by 50 cents a litre: the classic meal shows how the fuel crisis sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran will hit households’ hip pockets.

Fish fees

Fresh fish prices are already on the rise and frozen will have to follow, as the fuel that powers fishing boats and freight gets more expensive.

Diesel has nearly doubled in price in Australia and jet fuel has doubled in price globally, after Iran responded to US attacks by blocking the strait of Hormuz, cutting off about a fifth of the world’s supply of oil.

John Susman, owner of seafood consultancy Fishtales, says fishers are under pressure while wholesalers’ freight costs from Melbourne to Sydney are up by about 45 cents a kilogram – a rise of about $1.30 per whole fish.

Fish and chips shops and their suppliers both operate on small profit margins, so any increase in price by any part of the supply chain will end up being passed on, he says. “We’re going to see some fairly sharp increases.”

Some have already moved, with the Sydney fish market imposing a levy of 81 cents a kilogram on its auction sales to offset fuel costs for commercial fishers.

Price hikes for frozen and imported fish, commonly used in fish and chips, have only been temporarily delayed as businesses sell down their stocks, while air freight prices for fish such as New Zealand hoki are set to rise after Easter, Susman says.

Penny Kyburz, owner of Sea Salt in Coffs Harbour, says she will have to raise prices for customers if costs don’t come down. Sea Salt charges $20 for hoki with chips, or $22 for fish caught by local fishers, some of whom have paused their work as diesel costs double.

“They’re choosing not to go because they can’t afford it, therefore we’re not getting the fresh supply we normally get,” Kyburz says.

At the same time, Sea Salt’s food suppliers have added an extra $4 fuel levy on each shipment, lifting weekly costs by $16.

The Easter long weekend would typically bring huge sales to fish and chips shops but Kyburz says consumers are already cutting back as personal petrol prices rise, which would only be amplified by menu price hikes.

“We do price rises every year, just little ones, which go with the increases from our suppliers [but] we’ll have to raise our prices again and we don’t want to do that,” she says. “We’ll end up losing customers.”

Those who can’t hike their prices could have to shut down. Walker Seafoods, Australia’s biggest wild-caught tuna and swordfish company, has said it will stop fishing after its monthly fuel costs rose by over $100,000.

Chips aren’t cheap

Potato chips are also set to get pricier.

Kosta Papageorgakis grows his own potatoes for his Port Noarlunga Fish and Chips shop, where he sells a piece of hake with chips for $14.50.

He has pencilled in a 10% increase in prices across the seafood and food businesses generally, which would see his customers paying an extra $1.50.

“All the way from the farm to the supermarket shelf, the consumer’s going to pay,” he says.

Right now, potatoes are cheap and in season, but surging costs will affect the next crop. Papageorgakis says his potato farm’s fertiliser costs are up by $600 a tonne, while diesel for his trucks has run out after doubling in price.

The key fertiliser, urea, has risen in price by more than 50% in Australia since war broke out, according to Argus and GrainGrowers. About a third of the world’s sea trade in fertiliser, including 10m tonnes of urea, has been blocked with the strait of Hormuz’ closure, the United Nations estimates.

“I’m going to plant [the] amount like I normally would and see what happens,” Papageorgakis says. “If I can’t afford it, I just won’t grow it.”

Fish and chips stores may not typically cook fresh potatoes, with frozen imports more common – mostly sourced from Europe, the US and New Zealand – but frozen suppliers will eventually face the same issues, Papageorgakis says.

“Cold storage has a costing and … everyone’s going to put their little bit on [costs],” he says.

“The shopkeeper can only absorb so much of that, because they say: ‘OK, I’m actually going backwards, I can’t afford to do this any more’.”

Oil in all its forms

World oil shortages have left some countries trying to make fuel out of the same vegetable oils used to fry fish and chips.

Canola oil, often used in Australian friers, is going to get more expensive as a result, according to Vítor Pistóia, senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank.

Canola is crushed and filtered to make oil, which can be used for cooking or refined further into biofuel – which in turn can be blended into petrol and diesel to boost its volume.

Canola prices have risen nearly 10% in Canada since the war broke out, with a corresponding rise of 2% to 3% in Australia due to the lag in the export of existing stocks, Pistóia says.

For a $20 four-litre bottle of canola oil, a 3% price rise would mean an extra 60 cents a bottle, while a 10% rise would add $2.

Surging plastic packaging costs mean the final shelf price of a bottle of cooking oil will rise even further, Pistóia says.

“Plastic prices have been rising day by day on this conflict [as] they have a very high correlation with crude oil,” he says.

Plastic is typically made from fossil fuels such as oil or its byproducts. The Middle East alone accounts for about a quarter of global exports of polyethylene and polypropylene, which are key plastic polymers, according to S&P Global Energy.

The prices for PVC – another widely produced polymer – are up 20% and the prices of polyethylene are up 38% in China, and those costs will flow to Australia, Pistóia says. While a meal of fish and chips is often served in cardboard packaging, restaurants using plastic are in for an extra price shock.

“It’s just coming now, just the initial wave,” he says.