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A renewed deal between the UK and France to stop small boat Channel crossings has not yet been signed, with a day to go before the current one expires, raising questions about whether people smugglers will be able to act unimpeded from later this week.

Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron announced the previous £468m deal on 10 March 2023, weeks before it came into force. The UK pays two-thirds of the cost of policing France’s northern border and the current agreement expires on Tuesday. Discussions on it began last July at the 37th UK-France summit and British officials travelled to Paris last week for another round of talks.

The Times reported that the new agreement with France had been delayed because the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, was trying to get France to increase interceptions of dinghies. The Home Office said it was trying to add “flexibility and innovation” to the agreement.

The department said it had prevented 40,000 crossing attempts since Labour came to office. However, 2025 was the second highest year on record for small boat crossings since they began in 2018, with approximately 41,500 people arriving in the UK in dinghies. The Home Office did not respond to a request for evidence that the 40,000 intercepted did not subsequently cross the Channel.

So far this year more than 4,000 people have arrived in the UK on small boats.

One Home Office source with detailed knowledge of Anglo-French negotiations said that while it was right that the home secretary was pushing for a performance-based deal, security was not something to be “bought” in France and they would resist this approach vociferously.

The source said: “I hope we achieve the outcome the home secretary is aiming for but I am concerned that it might just delay things further and end up with the same outcome.”

He said that if there was a gap in the deal it was probable some patrols of the French coastline would continue.

“But I wouldn’t underestimate the impact when Paris takes its foot off the gas,” the source added.

NGOs on both sides of the Channel say expensive deals to stop small boat crossings do not work.

Lavanya Pallapi, the executive director of the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants, said any new deal would not prevent people from crossing the Channel.

“These border policies kill. Recently published research shows that the last UK-France border deal led to a surge in deaths,” Pallapi said. “These grim agreements between Britain and France have not, nor will they ever achieve their apparent aims, they will just extend and expand the violence, suffering and harm at the borders. More blood will be on their hands if this inhumane spiral of cruelty is not stopped.”

Lachlan Macrae, from Calais Food Collective support group, said: “It’s extraordinary that this agreement hasn’t been signed, but it’s clear that whether they sign this agreement or not, these policies are not working. If the government really wanted to ‘smash gangs’ as they claim, they would allow safe and accessible routes for asylum rather than throwing more UK taxpayers’ money at the French police.”

A Home Office spokesperson said: “France is our most important migration partner and together our joint work is bearing down on small boat crossings.

“We have prevented over 40,000 crossing attempts since this government took office. Our landmark deal means illegal migrants who arrive on small boats are being sent straight back.”